Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
Heritage Financial Corporation is the banking holding company for Heritage Bank providing various financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. The company is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.88% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $22.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.93% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HFWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 1.8516
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0807
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0807) – 1
= 38.09%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8516 + 0.0008 × 1,090 + 2 × 0.0807)
= Exp(2.8394)
= $17.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8516 + 0.0008 × 1,090 – 2 × 0.0807)
= Exp(2.5167)
= $12.39
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8516 + 0.0008 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0807)
= Exp(3.3769)
= $29.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8516 + 0.0008 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0807)
= Exp(3.0542)
= $21.20
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.88% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $22.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.6857
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0363
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0363) – 1
= 15.63%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6857 + -0.0009 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(3.3389)
= $28.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6857 + -0.0009 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(3.1937)
= $24.38
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6857 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(3.1893)
= $24.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6857 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(3.0441)
= $20.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.93% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.