Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
Heritage Financial Corporation is the banking holding company for Heritage Bank providing various financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. The company is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.98% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $22.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (41.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.31% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.59 (2.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HFWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2022
End date: January 17, 2023
a = 2.3691
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0593
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0593) – 1
= 26.79%
January 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3691 + 0.0008 × 895 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.1867)
= $24.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3691 + 0.0008 × 895 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(2.9493)
= $19.09
January 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3691 + 0.0008 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.4803)
= $32.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y875)
= Exp(a + b × X875 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3691 + 0.0008 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0593)
= Exp(3.2430)
= $25.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.98% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $22.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.52 (41.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2022
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 3.6935
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1529
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1529) – 1
= 84.33%
January 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6935 + -0.0005 × 895 + 2 × 0.1529)
= Exp(3.5627)
= $35.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6935 + -0.0005 × 895 – 2 × 0.1529)
= Exp(2.9512)
= $19.13
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6935 + -0.0005 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.1529)
= Exp(3.1134)
= $22.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6935 + -0.0005 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.1529)
= Exp(2.5019)
= $12.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.31% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.59 (2.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.