Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
Heritage Financial Corporation is the banking holding company for Heritage Bank providing various financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals in the United States. The company is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.12% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $19.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (18.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.09% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HFWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 1, 2022
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 4.8835
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1458) – 1
= 79.16%
July 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8835 + -0.0013 × 1,138 + 2 × 0.1458)
= Exp(3.6785)
= $39.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8835 + -0.0013 × 1,138 – 2 × 0.1458)
= Exp(3.0954)
= $22.10
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8835 + -0.0013 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.1458)
= Exp(2.9986)
= $20.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8835 + -0.0013 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.1458)
= Exp(2.4155)
= $11.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.12% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $19.08 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (18.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.0001
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.58%
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0005 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.8896)
= $17.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0005 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.6152)
= $13.67
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.0936)
= $22.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0001 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.8191)
= $16.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.09% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.