Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) is a prominent banking holding company headquartered in Olympia, Washington, serving the financial needs of small and medium-sized businesses as well as individual customers across the United States. Through its subsidiary, Heritage Bank, the company offers a diverse range of financial services, including commercial and personal banking, mortgage lending, and wealth management solutions. With a commitment to fostering community relationships and promoting economic growth, Heritage Financial Corporation continues to enhance its portfolio and expand its market presence in the competitive banking sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.08% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of March 16, 2026 was $25.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.84% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of March 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HFWA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2023
End date: March 16, 2026
a = 2.2520
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0818
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.70%
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2520 + 0.0006 × 768 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(2.8526)
= $17.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2520 + 0.0006 × 768 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(2.5254)
= $12.50
March 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.4540)
= $31.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2520 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.1269)
= $22.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.08% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of March 16, 2026 was $25.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: March 16, 2026
a = 2.9175
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0606
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.41%
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0002 × 1,321 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.2440)
= $25.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0002 × 1,321 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.0018)
= $20.12
March 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.3224)
= $27.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9175 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.0802)
= $21.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.84% per annum.
- HFWA price at the close of March 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.