Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a leading manufacturer and seller of iconic motorcycles, including custom, cruiser, and touring models. Renowned for its rich heritage and brand loyalty, the company continues to innovate and expand its product offerings to attract a diverse customer base. In addition to motorcycles, Harley-Davidson has developed a lifestyle brand that includes clothing, accessories, and merchandise, enhancing its connection with enthusiasts. With a strong global presence and a commitment to sustainability, Harley-Davidson aims to navigate the evolving automotive landscape while maintaining its legacy as a symbol of freedom and adventure.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.63% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $21.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.65% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of December 9, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.88 (7.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: August 11, 2025
a = 4.8904
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0789
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0789) – 1
= 37.12%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8904 + -0.0010 × 1,156 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(3.8439)
= $46.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8904 + -0.0010 × 1,156 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(3.5282)
= $34.06
August 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8904 + -0.0010 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(3.2720)
= $26.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8904 + -0.0010 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(2.9563)
= $19.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.63% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $21.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2025
End date: November 12, 2025
a = 2.3717
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0715
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0715) – 1
= 33.10%
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3717 + 0.0005 × 1,516 + 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(3.2945)
= $26.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3717 + 0.0005 × 1,516 – 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(3.0086)
= $20.26
November 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3717 + 0.0005 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(3.4396)
= $31.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3717 + 0.0005 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(3.1536)
= $23.42
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.65% per annum.
- HOG price at the close of December 9, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.88 (7.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.