# Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells custom, cruiser and touring motorcycles. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.51% per annum.
• HOG price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$37.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$14.65 (62.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.04% per annum.
• HOG price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

#### March 31, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

#### July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.51% per annum.
• HOG price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$37.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$14.65 (62.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

#### July 13, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= \$

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.04% per annum.
• HOG price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.