Hudson Pacific Properties Inc (HPP)
Hudson Pacific is a real estate investment trust with a portfolio of office and studio properties totaling nearly 19 million square feet, including development land.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.00% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $5.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (35.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.07% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HPP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: November 28, 2023
a = 4.7155
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1971
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1971) – 1
= 119.96%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7155 + -0.0020 × 612 + 2 × 0.1971)
= Exp(3.8788)
= $48.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y423)
= Exp(a + b × X423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7155 + -0.0020 × 612 – 2 × 0.1971)
= Exp(3.0905)
= $21.99
November 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7155 + -0.0020 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.1971)
= Exp(1.9260)
= $6.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,092)
= Exp(a + b × X1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7155 + -0.0020 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.1971)
= Exp(1.1377)
= $3.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.00% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $5.74 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.51 (35.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2023
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 0.2698
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1693
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1693) – 1
= 96.83%
March 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2698 + 0.0010 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.1693)
= Exp(1.9329)
= $6.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2698 + 0.0010 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.1693)
= Exp(1.2557)
= $3.51
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2698 + 0.0010 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.1693)
= Exp(2.3280)
= $10.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2698 + 0.0010 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.1693)
= Exp(1.6509)
= $5.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 44.07% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.