LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
LKQ Corporation (Like Kind and Quality) is an American provider of alternative and speciality parts to repair and accessorise automobiles and other vehicles.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.58% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $37.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.73% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.18 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LKQ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 4.4906
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0581
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0581) – 1
= 26.15%
November 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 925 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4906 + -0.0005 × 925 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.1474)
= $63.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 925 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4906 + -0.0005 × 925 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(3.9151)
= $50.15
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4906 + -0.0005 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(3.7342)
= $41.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4906 + -0.0005 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(3.5019)
= $33.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.58% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $37.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 2.5814
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0392
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0392) – 1
= 16.98%
October 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5814 + 0.0006 × 1,622 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.6772)
= $39.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5814 + 0.0006 × 1,622 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.5204)
= $33.80
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5814 + 0.0006 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.8014)
= $44.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5814 + 0.0006 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.6446)
= $38.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.73% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.18 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.