Stock Price Trends

LKQ Corporation (LKQ)

LKQ Corporation is a leading provider of alternative and specialty parts designed to repair and accessorize automobiles and other vehicles in the United States and across Europe. By offering a comprehensive range of high-quality products, including recycled and refurbished parts, LKQ supports both sustainability initiatives and cost-effective vehicle repairs. The company's strategic focus on expanding its market presence through acquisitions and innovation positions it favorably in the burgeoning automotive aftermarket industry, catering to a diverse customer base of repair shops and individual consumers. With a commitment to enhancing operational efficiencies and customer service excellence, LKQ is well-positioned for sustained growth and profitability in the evolving automotive landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.88% per annum.
  • LKQ price at the close of November 21, 2025 was $29.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.41% per annum.
  • LKQ price at the close of November 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LKQ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 4, 2023
End date: November 21, 2025

a = 4.3860

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0696

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.09%

January 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y531)
= Exp(a + b × X531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3860 + -0.0005 × 772 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.1341)
= $62.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y531)
= Exp(a + b × X531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3860 + -0.0005 × 772 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.8558)
= $47.27

November 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3860 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.6012)
= $36.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3860 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(3.3229)
= $27.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.88% per annum.
  • LKQ price at the close of November 21, 2025 was $29.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2025
End date: November 21, 2025

a = 6.1066

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0569

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0569) – 1
= 25.58%

February 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1066 + -0.0015 × 1,556 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.8684)
= $47.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,068)
= Exp(a + b × X1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,556 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1066 + -0.0015 × 1,556 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.6407)
= $38.12

November 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1066 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.4633)
= $31.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1066 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.2355)
= $25.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.41% per annum.
  • LKQ price at the close of November 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.