Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.62% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $117.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.36% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.4479
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0581
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0581) – 1
= 26.16%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4479 + -0.0004 × 908 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(5.2285)
= $186.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4479 + -0.0004 × 908 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.9961)
= $147.84
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4479 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.8895)
= $132.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4479 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0581)
= Exp(4.6571)
= $105.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.62% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $117.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.9901
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.03%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9901 + -0.0007 × 1,405 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.1071)
= $165.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y967)
= Exp(a + b × X967 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9901 + -0.0007 × 1,405 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.9245)
= $137.62
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9901 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.8158)
= $123.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9901 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.6332)
= $102.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.36% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.