Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.89% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $137.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.99 (4.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.21% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.72 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: February 16, 2024
a = 5.8467
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.13%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8467 + -0.0006 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(5.2515)
= $190.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8467 + -0.0006 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(5.0848)
= $161.55
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8467 + -0.0006 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.9744)
= $144.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8467 + -0.0006 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(4.8078)
= $122.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.89% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $137.97 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.99 (4.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 3.8407
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.87%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8407 + 0.0007 × 1,518 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.9565)
= $142.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8407 + 0.0007 × 1,518 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.7921)
= $120.56
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8407 + 0.0007 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.1227)
= $167.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8407 + 0.0007 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.9583)
= $142.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.21% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $10.72 (7.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.