Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is a leading American distributor specializing in automotive and industrial replacement parts, as well as office products and electrical/electronic materials. With a robust network of over 3,100 locations across North America, GPC serves a diverse customer base, ranging from automotive repair shops to industrial facilities. The company is committed to providing high-quality products and exceptional customer service, leveraging its extensive industry experience and supply chain capabilities to drive growth and enhance value for shareholders. GPC's strategic initiatives focus on expanding its market presence and optimizing operational efficiency in a dynamic economic landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.20% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $133.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.51 (5.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.68% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2022
End date: July 21, 2025
a = 5.2492
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.12%
August 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2492 + -0.0003 × 605 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.1987)
= $181.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y417)
= Exp(a + b × X417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2492 + -0.0003 × 605 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.9431)
= $140.21
July 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2492 + -0.0003 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.8820)
= $131.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2492 + -0.0003 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(4.6263)
= $102.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.20% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $133.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.51 (5.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2024
End date: December 11, 2025
a = 4.1236
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.53%
October 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1236 + 0.0004 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.8078)
= $122.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1236 + 0.0004 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.6294)
= $102.45
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1236 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.9832)
= $145.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1236 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(4.8047)
= $122.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.68% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.