Pool Corporation (POOL)
Pool Corporation is a major distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related outdoor products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.38% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $359.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.42 (1.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.84% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of POOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 6.4259
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1108
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1108) – 1
= 55.76%
April 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4259 + -0.0004 × 636 + 2 × 0.1108)
= Exp(6.3770)
= $588.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4259 + -0.0004 × 636 – 2 × 0.1108)
= Exp(5.9338)
= $377.60
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4259 + -0.0004 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.1108)
= Exp(5.9669)
= $390.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4259 + -0.0004 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.1108)
= Exp(5.5238)
= $250.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.38% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $359.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.42 (1.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: June 5, 2024
a = 5.4090
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0603
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0603) – 1
= 27.28%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4090 + 0.0003 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(5.8752)
= $356.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4090 + 0.0003 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(5.6340)
= $279.77
June 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4090 + 0.0003 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(6.0741)
= $434.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4090 + 0.0003 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(5.8329)
= $341.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.84% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.