Pool Corporation (POOL)
Pool Corporation is a major distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related outdoor products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.42% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $291.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.38 (14.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.20% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $24.74 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of POOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: June 14, 2023
a = 6.4045
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1080
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1080) – 1
= 54.02%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4045 + -0.0006 × 359 + 2 × 0.1080)
= Exp(6.4081)
= $606.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y248)
= Exp(a + b × X248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4045 + -0.0006 × 359 – 2 × 0.1080)
= Exp(5.9762)
= $393.95
June 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4045 + -0.0006 × 1,141 + 2 × 0.1080)
= Exp(5.9456)
= $382.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4045 + -0.0006 × 1,141 – 2 × 0.1080)
= Exp(5.5137)
= $248.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.42% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $291.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $36.38 (14.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: March 12, 2025
a = 5.7377
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0697
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.15%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7377 + 0.0001 × 772 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.9438)
= $381.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y534)
= Exp(a + b × X534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7377 + 0.0001 × 772 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.6650)
= $288.58
March 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7377 + 0.0001 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(6.0307)
= $416.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7377 + 0.0001 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(5.7519)
= $314.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.20% per annum.
- POOL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $24.74 (7.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.