Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK)
Mohawk Industries is an American flooring manufacturer based in Calhoun, Georgia, United States. Mohawk produces floor covering products for residential and commercial applications in North America and residential applications in Europe.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.06% per annum.
- MHK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $134.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $54.57 (68.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.07% per annum.
- MHK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MHK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 5.8883
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1052
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1052) – 1
= 52.33%
February 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y389)
= Exp(a + b × X389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8883 + -0.0009 × 565 + 2 × 0.1052)
= Exp(5.5673)
= $261.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y389)
= Exp(a + b × X389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8883 + -0.0009 × 565 – 2 × 0.1052)
= Exp(5.1464)
= $171.82
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8883 + -0.0009 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.1052)
= Exp(4.5937)
= $98.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8883 + -0.0009 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.1052)
= Exp(4.1729)
= $64.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.06% per annum.
- MHK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $134.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $54.57 (68.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.3590
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1109
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1109) – 1
= 55.81%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3590 + 0.0002 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.1109)
= Exp(4.7916)
= $120.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3590 + 0.0002 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.1109)
= Exp(4.3481)
= $77.33
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3590 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1109)
= Exp(4.9223)
= $137.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3590 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1109)
= Exp(4.4789)
= $88.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.07% per annum.
- MHK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.