Newell Brands Inc (NWL)
Newell Brands is an American worldwide manufacturer, marketer and distributor of consumer and commercial products with a portfolio of brands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.56% per annum.
- NWL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $6.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.94% per annum.
- NWL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1119
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1174) – 1
= 59.96%
April 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y440)
= Exp(a + b × X440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1119 + -0.0012 × 640 + 2 × 0.1174)
= Exp(3.5487)
= $34.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y440)
= Exp(a + b × X440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1119 + -0.0012 × 640 – 2 × 0.1174)
= Exp(3.0790)
= $21.74
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1119 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1174)
= Exp(2.0699)
= $7.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1119 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1174)
= Exp(1.6001)
= $4.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.56% per annum.
- NWL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $6.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.4836
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0921
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0921) – 1
= 44.55%
October 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4836 + -0.0003 × 1,530 + 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(2.2288)
= $9.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4836 + -0.0003 × 1,530 – 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.8603)
= $6.43
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4836 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(2.1439)
= $8.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4836 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0921)
= Exp(1.7754)
= $5.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.94% per annum.
- NWL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.