Stock Price Trends

Newell Brands Inc (NWL)

Newell Brands is an American worldwide manufacturer, marketer and distributor of consumer and commercial products with a portfolio of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.81% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $5.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.67% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.50 (8.88%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 15, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 3.7003

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1207

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1207) – 1
= 62.03%

March 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y220)
= Exp(a + b × X220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7003 + -0.0012 × 320 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(3.5529)
= $34.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y220)
= Exp(a + b × X220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7003 + -0.0012 × 320 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(3.0703)
= $21.55

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7003 + -0.0012 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(2.0614)
= $7.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7003 + -0.0012 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.1207)
= Exp(1.5788)
= $4.85

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.81% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $5.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 2.2088

b = -0.0001

s = 0.1489

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1489) – 1
= 81.39%

May 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y757)
= Exp(a + b × X757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2088 + -0.0001 × 1,098 + 2 × 0.1489)
= Exp(2.3941)
= $10.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y757)
= Exp(a + b × X757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2088 + -0.0001 × 1,098 – 2 × 0.1489)
= Exp(1.7986)
= $6.04

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2088 + -0.0001 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.1489)
= Exp(2.3229)
= $10.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2088 + -0.0001 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.1489)
= Exp(1.7274)
= $5.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.67% per annum.
  • NWL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.50 (8.88%).