PriceSmart Inc (PSMT)
PriceSmart, Inc. owns and operates American-style membership shopping warehouse clubs in Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.48% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $86.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.86% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.6609
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.09%
July 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6609 + 0.0004 × 1,082 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.2250)
= $68.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y745)
= Exp(a + b × X745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6609 + 0.0004 × 1,082 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.0011)
= $54.66
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6609 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.5358)
= $93.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6609 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.3120)
= $74.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.48% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $86.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8302
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.79%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8302 + 0.0009 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.3077)
= $74.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8302 + 0.0009 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.1355)
= $62.52
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8302 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.5586)
= $95.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8302 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(4.3864)
= $80.35
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.86% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.