PriceSmart Inc (PSMT)
PriceSmart, Inc. is a leading operator of membership-based warehouse clubs in Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia, providing an American-style shopping experience to its diverse customer base. Headquartered in San Diego, California, the company focuses on offering a wide range of products at competitive prices, attracting both individuals and businesses alike. With a strategic emphasis on expanding its footprint in emerging markets, PriceSmart continues to capitalize on the growing demand for value-driven retail solutions in these regions, positioning itself for sustainable growth and profitability.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $123.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.87%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.30% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2022
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 3.7368
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.17%
July 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 624 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.1838)
= $65.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 624 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.9356)
= $51.19
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.8047)
= $122.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.5565)
= $95.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $123.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.87%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2025
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 2.1842
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0414
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0414) – 1
= 18.02%
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.5345)
= $93.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.3688)
= $78.95
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.8980)
= $134.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.7323)
= $113.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.30% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.