Stock Price Trends

PriceSmart Inc (PSMT)

PriceSmart, Inc. is a leading operator of membership-based warehouse clubs in Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia, providing an American-style shopping experience to its diverse customer base. Headquartered in San Diego, California, the company focuses on offering a wide range of products at competitive prices, attracting both individuals and businesses alike. With a strategic emphasis on expanding its footprint in emerging markets, PriceSmart continues to capitalize on the growing demand for value-driven retail solutions in these regions, positioning itself for sustainable growth and profitability.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
  • PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $123.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.87%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.30% per annum.
  • PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 12, 2022
End date: October 24, 2025

a = 3.7368

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0620

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.17%

July 12, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 624 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.1838)
= $65.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 624 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.9356)
= $51.19

October 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.8047)
= $122.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7368 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.5565)
= $95.25

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
  • PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $123.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.87%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 14, 2025
End date: October 24, 2025

a = 2.1842

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0414

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0414) – 1
= 18.02%

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.5345)
= $93.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.3688)
= $78.95

October 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.8980)
= $134.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1842 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0414)
= Exp(4.7323)
= $113.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.30% per annum.
  • PSMT price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.