PriceSmart Inc (PSMT)
PriceSmart, Inc. owns and operates American-style membership shopping warehouse clubs in Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.35% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $101.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.95 (4.05%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2022
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.7428
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0539
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.07%
July 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7428 + 0.0004 × 803 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.2026)
= $66.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7428 + 0.0004 × 803 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(3.9869)
= $53.89
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7428 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.6505)
= $104.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7428 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.4348)
= $84.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.35% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $101.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.4068
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 1.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.69%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4068 + 0.0001 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.5673)
= $96.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4068 + 0.0001 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.4129)
= $82.51
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4068 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.5805)
= $97.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4068 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.4261)
= $83.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.95% per annum.
- PSMT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.95 (4.05%).