Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO)
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is an American video game holding company based in New York City. The company owns two major publishing labels, Rockstar Games and 2K, which operate internal game development studios.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.29% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $150.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.11 (10.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.00% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TTWO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: February 22, 2024
a = 3.5593
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0662) – 1
= 30.29%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5593 + 0.0009 × 1,153 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.7609)
= $116.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y795)
= Exp(a + b × X795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5593 + 0.0009 × 1,153 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.4963)
= $89.68
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5593 + 0.0009 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(5.2422)
= $189.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5593 + 0.0009 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(4.9776)
= $145.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.29% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $150.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.11 (10.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 18, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.6220
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0505
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.38%
May 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6220 + 0.0002 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.0516)
= $156.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6220 + 0.0002 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(4.8496)
= $127.69
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6220 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(5.1541)
= $173.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6220 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(4.9521)
= $141.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.00% per annum.
- TTWO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.