Titan International Inc (TWI)
Titan International, Inc. manufactures and sells wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for off-road vehicles in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States region, the Middle East, Africa, Russia, and internationally. . The company is headquartered in Quincy, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.56% per annum.
- TWI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $8.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.66% per annum.
- TWI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (6.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.2794
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1635
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1635) – 1
= 92.33%
March 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y661)
= Exp(a + b × X661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2794 + -0.0005 × 958 + 2 × 0.1635)
= Exp(3.0997)
= $22.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y661)
= Exp(a + b × X661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2794 + -0.0005 × 958 – 2 × 0.1635)
= Exp(2.4456)
= $11.54
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2794 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1635)
= Exp(2.6405)
= $14.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2794 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1635)
= Exp(1.9865)
= $7.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.56% per annum.
- TWI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $8.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 10.1405
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0834
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0834) – 1
= 39.61%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1405 + -0.0045 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(2.9392)
= $18.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1405 + -0.0045 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(2.6056)
= $13.54
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1405 + -0.0045 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(2.0885)
= $8.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1405 + -0.0045 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0834)
= Exp(1.7549)
= $5.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.66% per annum.
- TWI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (6.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.