Stock Price Trends

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)

Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.15% per annum.
  • UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
  • UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPBD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 8.6194

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0478

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.07%

November 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.6306)
= $37.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.4394)
= $31.17

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.1487)
= $23.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(2.9575)
= $19.25

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.15% per annum.
  • UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.64 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 28, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 11.2679

b = -0.0045

s = 0.0342

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.67%

January 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.4734)
= $32.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.3365)
= $28.12

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.0656)
= $21.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(2.9286)
= $18.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
  • UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also