Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) operates as a leading omni-channel platform focused on providing lease-to-own solutions for household durable goods across the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. Headquartered in Plano, Texas, the company leverages innovative technology to enhance customer experience and streamline operations. With a robust growth strategy, Upbound is well-positioned to capitalize on evolving consumer trends in the leasing market, making it an attractive investment opportunity for institutional investors seeking exposure to the durable goods sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.38% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $20.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.35 (34.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.20% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPBD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2022
End date: December 26, 2024
a = 2.7123
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1134) – 1
= 57.39%
February 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7123 + 0.0005 × 477 + 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(3.1815)
= $24.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7123 + 0.0005 × 477 – 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(2.7280)
= $15.30
December 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7123 + 0.0005 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(3.7081)
= $40.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7123 + 0.0005 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.1134)
= Exp(3.2546)
= $25.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.38% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $20.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.35 (34.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: November 3, 2025
a = 4.0613
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.08%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + -0.0005 × 1,134 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.6400)
= $38.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + -0.0005 × 1,134 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.3101)
= $27.39
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.2828)
= $26.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(2.9529)
= $19.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.20% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.