Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD)
Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.15% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPBD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 21, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.6194
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0478
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.07%
November 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.6306)
= $37.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.4394)
= $31.17
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(3.1487)
= $23.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6194 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(2.9575)
= $19.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.15% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $20.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 28, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 11.2679
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0342
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0342) – 1
= 14.67%
January 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.4734)
= $32.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.3365)
= $28.12
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(3.0656)
= $21.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2679 + -0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0342)
= Exp(2.9286)
= $18.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.87% per annum.
- UPBD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.