Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. is an American pharmaceuticals holding company headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. It owns the pharmacy chains Walgreens and Boots, as well as several pharmaceutical manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.98% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $17.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.98% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WBA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2021
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.7025
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0914
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1
= 44.16%
November 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 910 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.0321)
= $56.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 910 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.6664)
= $39.11
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.1733)
= $23.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(2.8076)
= $16.57
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.98% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $17.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 7.8332
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.96%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.3263)
= $27.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.1868)
= $24.21
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.9315)
= $18.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.7921)
= $16.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.98% per annum.
- WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.