Stock Price Trends

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA)

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. is an American pharmaceuticals holding company headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. It owns the pharmacy chains Walgreens and Boots, as well as several pharmaceutical manufacturing, wholesale, and distribution companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.98% per annum.
  • WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $17.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.98% per annum.
  • WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WBA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 3, 2021
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 4.7025

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0914

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1
= 44.16%

November 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 910 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.0321)
= $56.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 910 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.6664)
= $39.11

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(3.1733)
= $23.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7025 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(2.8076)
= $16.57

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.98% per annum.
  • WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $17.35 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 7.8332

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.96%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.3263)
= $27.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.1868)
= $24.21

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.9315)
= $18.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8332 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.7921)
= $16.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.98% per annum.
  • WBA price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.