Stock Price Trends

Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is an omnichannel specialty retailer of various home products. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.25% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $155.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.32% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WSM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 1, 2023
End date: June 26, 2024

a = 0.1245

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0726

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 175.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0726) – 1
= 33.70%

May 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1245 + 0.0028 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.0756)
= $58.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1245 + 0.0028 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(3.7853)
= $44.05

June 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1245 + 0.0028 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(5.2463)
= $189.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1245 + 0.0028 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0726)
= Exp(4.9559)
= $142.01

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.25% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $155.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 4.8424

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0441

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0441) – 1
= 19.29%

March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8424 + 0.0001 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(5.0816)
= $161.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8424 + 0.0001 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.9052)
= $134.99

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8424 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(5.0937)
= $162.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8424 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(4.9173)
= $136.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.32% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.