Stock Price Trends

Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. is an omnichannel specialty retailer of various home products. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.65% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $152.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.24 (13.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.13% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WSM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2022
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 2.1977

b = 0.0018

s = 0.1274

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1274) – 1
= 66.46%

November 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1977 + 0.0018 × 936 + 2 × 0.1274)
= Exp(4.1072)
= $60.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1977 + 0.0018 × 936 – 2 × 0.1274)
= Exp(3.5976)
= $36.51

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1977 + 0.0018 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.1274)
= Exp(5.5922)
= $268.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1977 + 0.0018 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.1274)
= Exp(5.0826)
= $161.20

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 90.65% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $152.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.24 (13.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 14.7843

b = -0.0054

s = 0.0422

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -86.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.38%

January 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7843 + -0.0054 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.5100)
= $247.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7843 + -0.0054 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.3413)
= $208.79

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7843 + -0.0054 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.0175)
= $151.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.7843 + -0.0054 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.8488)
= $127.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.13% per annum.
  • WSM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.54 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

RH
RH