Stock Price Trends

Avnet Inc (AVT)

Avnet, Inc., a technology solutions company, markets, sells and distributes electronic components. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.59% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $51.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.52% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.21 (0.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.4670

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0633

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0633) – 1
= 28.82%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y173)
= Exp(a + b × X173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0003 × 251 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.6629)
= $38.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y173)
= Exp(a + b × X173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0003 × 251 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.4096)
= $30.25

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(4.0968)
= $60.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4670 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0633)
= Exp(3.8435)
= $46.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.59% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $51.24 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.1997

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0367

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.83%

September 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0007 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.0903)
= $59.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0007 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.9434)
= $51.59

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.9324)
= $51.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(3.7854)
= $44.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.52% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.21 (0.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.