Stock Price Trends

CDW Corp (CDW)

CDW Corporation, headquartered in Lincolnshire, Illinois, is a provider of technology products and services for business, government and education.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.60% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $159.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.53% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.25 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 6.9259

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0595

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0595) – 1
= 26.86%

February 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9259 + -0.0010 × 1,379 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(5.6650)
= $288.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9259 + -0.0010 × 1,379 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(5.4271)
= $227.48

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9259 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(5.2187)
= $184.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9259 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0595)
= Exp(4.9808)
= $145.59

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.60% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $159.96 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 10.9313

b = -0.0033

s = 0.0360

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -69.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0360) – 1
= 15.49%

January 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9313 + -0.0033 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(5.3766)
= $216.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9313 + -0.0033 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(5.2326)
= $187.28

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9313 + -0.0033 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(5.0608)
= $157.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9313 + -0.0033 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(4.9168)
= $136.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.53% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.25 (1.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.