Stock Price Trends

PC Connection Inc (CNXN)

PC Connection, Inc., provides a range of information technology (IT) solutions. The company is headquartered in Merrimack, New Hampshire.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.16% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $62.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.44% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 6.8188

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0319

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0319) – 1
= 13.60%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8188 + -0.0015 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(4.3819)
= $79.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8188 + -0.0015 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(4.2544)
= $70.42

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8188 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(4.1464)
= $63.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8188 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(4.0189)
= $55.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.16% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $62.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 1.6325

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0142

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0142) – 1
= 5.85%

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6325 + 0.0014 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.1139)
= $61.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6325 + 0.0014 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.0570)
= $57.80

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6325 + 0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.1480)
= $63.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6325 + 0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.0911)
= $59.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.44% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.