Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., a lifestyle retail chain, operates specialty retail stores in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.05% per annum.
- BOOT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $104.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.38 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.36% per annum.
- BOOT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BOOT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 3, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 15.5160
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0671
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0671) – 1
= 30.81%
January 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5160 + -0.0061 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.2881)
= $197.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5160 + -0.0061 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(5.0196)
= $151.34
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5160 + -0.0061 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.6216)
= $101.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5160 + -0.0061 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0671)
= Exp(4.3530)
= $77.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 89.05% per annum.
- BOOT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $104.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.38 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 9.4396
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.28%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4396 + -0.0027 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.8124)
= $123.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4396 + -0.0027 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.5950)
= $98.99
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4396 + -0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.6625)
= $105.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4396 + -0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.4451)
= $85.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.36% per annum.
- BOOT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.