Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF)
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., is a specialty retailer. The company is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.45% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $70.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.15% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 17.7540
b = -0.0075
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0075) – 1
= -93.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.06%
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.7540 + -0.0075 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(5.2210)
= $185.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.7540 + -0.0075 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.9973)
= $148.02
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.7540 + -0.0075 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.3172)
= $74.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.7540 + -0.0075 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(4.0936)
= $59.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.45% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $70.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 9.3839
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0400
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.35%
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3839 + -0.0028 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.4842)
= $88.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3839 + -0.0028 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3242)
= $75.51
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3839 + -0.0028 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.3353)
= $76.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3839 + -0.0028 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.1753)
= $65.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.15% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.