Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF)
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., is a specialty retailer. The company is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 423.93% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $151.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.53 (12.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.98% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 12, 2024
a = -2.9234
b = 0.0045
s = 0.1042
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 423.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1042) – 1
= 51.73%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9234 + 0.0045 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(3.3018)
= $27.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9234 + 0.0045 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(2.8849)
= $17.90
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9234 + 0.0045 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.5116)
= $247.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9234 + 0.0045 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.0946)
= $163.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 423.93% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $151.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.53 (12.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 12.2047
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.02%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2047 + -0.0039 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.3143)
= $203.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2047 + -0.0039 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.1744)
= $176.69
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2047 + -0.0039 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(5.1384)
= $170.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2047 + -0.0039 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.9985)
= $148.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.98% per annum.
- ANF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.