Victoria's Secret & Co (VSCO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 96.16% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $18.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,165.05% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2024
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 14.9830
b = -0.0089
s = 0.1030
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0089) – 1
= -96.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1030) – 1
= 51.01%
December 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9830 + -0.0089 × 1,234 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(4.1704)
= $64.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y851)
= Exp(a + b × X851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9830 + -0.0089 × 1,234 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.7583)
= $42.88
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9830 + -0.0089 × 1,371 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.9471)
= $19.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9830 + -0.0089 × 1,371 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.5350)
= $12.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 96.16% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $18.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.90 (5.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = -11.2325
b = 0.0103
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4,165.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.20%
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.2325 + 0.0103 × 1,360 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.8434)
= $17.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.2325 + 0.0103 × 1,360 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.6594)
= $14.29
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.2325 + 0.0103 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.0182)
= $20.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.2325 + 0.0103 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(2.8342)
= $17.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,165.05% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.