Victoria's Secret & Co (VSCO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $22.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 2.1738
b = 0.0010
s = 0.2124
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2124) – 1
= 133.89%
May 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 671 + 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.2516)
= $25.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 671 – 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(2.4019)
= $11.04
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.8811)
= $48.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.0314)
= $20.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $22.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: August 5, 2025
a = 7.8812
b = -0.0035
s = 0.1929
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -71.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1929) – 1
= 116.31%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,202 + 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(4.1049)
= $60.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,202 – 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(3.3334)
= $28.03
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(3.1561)
= $23.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(2.3846)
= $10.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
- VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.