Stock Price Trends

Victoria's Secret & Co (VSCO)

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Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $22.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: February 28, 2025

a = 2.1738

b = 0.0010

s = 0.2124

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2124) – 1
= 133.89%

May 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 671 + 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.2516)
= $25.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 671 – 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(2.4019)
= $11.04

February 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.8811)
= $48.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1738 + 0.0010 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.2124)
= Exp(3.0314)
= $20.73

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.64% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $22.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (8.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: August 5, 2025

a = 7.8812

b = -0.0035

s = 0.1929

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -71.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1929) – 1
= 116.31%

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,202 + 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(4.1049)
= $60.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,202 – 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(3.3334)
= $28.03

August 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,476 + 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(3.1561)
= $23.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,476 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8812 + -0.0035 × 1,476 – 2 × 0.1929)
= Exp(2.3846)
= $10.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.74% per annum.
  • VSCO price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.