Stock Price Trends

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

The TJX Companies, Inc. (abbreviated TJX) is an American multinational off-price department store corporation, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.93% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $98.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.00% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: April 11, 2024

a = 3.2574

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0510

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.63%

March 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2574 + 0.0008 × 1,030 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.1414)
= $62.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2574 + 0.0008 × 1,030 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(3.9374)
= $51.28

April 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2574 + 0.0008 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.7252)
= $112.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2574 + 0.0008 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.5212)
= $91.95

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.93% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $98.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024

a = 3.5989

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0357

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.34%

November 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5989 + 0.0005 × 1,281 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.3681)
= $78.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5989 + 0.0005 × 1,281 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.2254)
= $68.40

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5989 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.6650)
= $106.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5989 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.5223)
= $92.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.00% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.