Stock Price Trends

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)

The TJX Companies, Inc. (abbreviated TJX) is an American multinational off-price department store corporation, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $127.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.66% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 3.5177

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0477

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.00%

March 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y466)
= Exp(a + b × X466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5177 + 0.0008 × 674 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.1222)
= $61.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y466)
= Exp(a + b × X466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5177 + 0.0008 × 674 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.9316)
= $50.99

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5177 + 0.0008 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.9508)
= $141.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5177 + 0.0008 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.7602)
= $116.77

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $127.13 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 4.1070

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0299

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.70%

June 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1070 + 0.0004 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.7686)
= $117.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1070 + 0.0004 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.6491)
= $104.49

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1070 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.8942)
= $133.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1070 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.7747)
= $118.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.66% per annum.
  • TJX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.