Guess? Inc. (GES)
Guess? The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.44% per annum.
- GES price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $23.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.10 (89.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.70% per annum.
- GES price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 23, 2020
End date: November 17, 2022
a = 3.3545
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0936
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0936) – 1
= 45.41%
December 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y356)
= Exp(a + b × X356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3545 + -0.0006 × 513 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(3.2553)
= $25.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y356)
= Exp(a + b × X356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3545 + -0.0006 × 513 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.8809)
= $17.83
November 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3545 + -0.0006 × 1,207 + 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.8678)
= $17.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y835)
= Exp(a + b × X835 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3545 + -0.0006 × 1,207 – 2 × 0.0936)
= Exp(2.4934)
= $12.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.44% per annum.
- GES price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $23.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.10 (89.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.9245
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0950
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0950) – 1
= 46.21%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9245 + 0.0007 × 1,046 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(2.8375)
= $17.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9245 + 0.0007 × 1,046 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(2.4576)
= $11.68
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9245 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(3.3752)
= $29.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9245 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(2.9953)
= $19.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.70% per annum.
- GES price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.