Guess? Inc. (GES)
Guess? The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.65% per annum.
- GES price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $11.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.07 (0.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.53% per annum.
- GES price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (11.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 6.8490
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0756
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0756) – 1
= 35.33%
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8490 + -0.0025 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.4641)
= $31.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8490 + -0.0025 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(3.1615)
= $23.61
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8490 + -0.0025 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.4744)
= $11.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8490 + -0.0025 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0756)
= Exp(2.1718)
= $8.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.65% per annum.
- GES price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $11.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.07 (0.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 7.8680
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.92%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8680 + -0.0031 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.2368)
= $25.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8680 + -0.0031 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.0143)
= $20.38
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8680 + -0.0031 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.3709)
= $10.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8680 + -0.0031 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(2.1484)
= $8.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.53% per annum.
- GES price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (11.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.