Caleres Inc (CAL)
Caleres, Inc. is engaged in the retail and wholesale of footwear in the United States, China, Canada, China, and Guam. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.64% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $36.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.40 (17.27%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.50% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2021
End date: November 20, 2023
a = 3.0636
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1000
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1000) – 1
= 49.18%
March 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0636 + 0.0001 × 608 + 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.3232)
= $27.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0636 + 0.0001 × 608 – 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(2.9232)
= $18.60
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,578 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0636 + 0.0001 × 1,578 + 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.4183)
= $30.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,578 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0636 + 0.0001 × 1,578 – 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.0183)
= $20.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.64% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $36.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.40 (17.27%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: May 30, 2024
a = 1.0770
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0700
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0700) – 1
= 32.32%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0770 + 0.0015 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(3.1554)
= $23.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0770 + 0.0015 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(2.8753)
= $17.73
May 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0770 + 0.0015 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(3.8044)
= $44.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0770 + 0.0015 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(3.5244)
= $33.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.50% per annum.
- CAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.