The Gap, Inc. (GAP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.35% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $21.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.37% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GAP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 20, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 1.0303
b = 0.0013
s = 0.2110
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2110) – 1
= 132.56%
May 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0303 + 0.0013 × 751 + 2 × 0.2110)
= Exp(2.4110)
= $11.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0303 + 0.0013 × 751 – 2 × 0.2110)
= Exp(1.5670)
= $4.79
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0303 + 0.0013 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.2110)
= Exp(3.7105)
= $40.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0303 + 0.0013 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.2110)
= Exp(2.8665)
= $17.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.35% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $21.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.3876
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0856
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0856) – 1
= 40.81%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3876 + -0.0002 × 1,412 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.3043)
= $27.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y972)
= Exp(a + b × X972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3876 + -0.0002 × 1,412 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(2.9621)
= $19.34
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3876 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(3.2299)
= $25.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3876 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0856)
= Exp(2.8876)
= $17.95
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.37% per annum.
- GAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.