Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL)
Shoe Carnival, Inc., is a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.28% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of September 30, 2025 was $20.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.24% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of September 30, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.54 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2024
End date: August 20, 2025
a = 6.5857
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1343) – 1
= 71.10%
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5857 + -0.0021 × 1,331 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(4.0789)
= $59.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5857 + -0.0021 × 1,331 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.5418)
= $34.53
August 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5857 + -0.0021 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.1343)
= $22.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5857 + -0.0021 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(2.5972)
= $13.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.28% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of September 30, 2025 was $20.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2025
End date: September 25, 2025
a = 0.1210
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.51%
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1210 + 0.0017 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(2.9529)
= $19.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1210 + 0.0017 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(2.7747)
= $16.03
September 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1210 + 0.0017 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.2300)
= $25.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1210 + 0.0017 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(3.0518)
= $21.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.24% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of September 30, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.54 (2.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.