Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL)
Shoe Carnival, Inc., is a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.43% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $17.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.02% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 10.1444
b = -0.0040
s = 0.0655
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -76.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0655) – 1
= 29.94%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1444 + -0.0040 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.9372)
= $51.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1444 + -0.0040 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.6753)
= $39.46
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1444 + -0.0040 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(3.0504)
= $21.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1444 + -0.0040 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0655)
= Exp(2.7885)
= $16.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 76.43% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $17.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 12.3420
b = -0.0052
s = 0.0499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0052) – 1
= -85.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0499) – 1
= 22.09%
December 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3420 + -0.0052 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.6724)
= $39.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3420 + -0.0052 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(3.4727)
= $32.22
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3420 + -0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.9494)
= $19.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.3420 + -0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(2.7498)
= $15.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.02% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.