Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL)
Shoe Carnival, Inc., is a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.53% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $34.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.11 (35.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.44% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2021
End date: December 5, 2023
a = 3.8304
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1227) – 1
= 63.34%
March 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8304 + -0.0005 × 661 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.7701)
= $43.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8304 + -0.0005 × 661 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.2795)
= $26.56
December 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8304 + -0.0005 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.3082)
= $27.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,145)
= Exp(a + b × X1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8304 + -0.0005 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(2.8175)
= $16.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.53% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $34.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.11 (35.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -0.0685
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0603
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 107.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0603) – 1
= 27.28%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0685 + 0.0020 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.1607)
= $23.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0685 + 0.0020 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(2.9195)
= $18.53
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0685 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.6985)
= $40.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0685 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.4572)
= $31.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.44% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.