Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL)
Shoe Carnival, Inc., is a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.84% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $41.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.12% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.1808
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0568
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.50%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1808 + 0.0019 × 1,488 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.1575)
= $23.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1808 + 0.0019 × 1,488 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(2.9304)
= $18.73
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1808 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.8079)
= $45.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1808 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(3.5807)
= $35.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.84% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $41.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.1857
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0373
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0373) – 1
= 16.10%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1857 + 0.0014 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(3.5353)
= $34.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1857 + 0.0014 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(3.3860)
= $29.55
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1857 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(3.7389)
= $42.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1857 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(3.5896)
= $36.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 64.12% per annum.
- SCVL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.