Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)
Urban Outfitters, Inc. is engaged in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.45% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $77.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 121.15% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of URBN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 2.3327
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0657
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0657) – 1
= 30.05%
May 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3327 + 0.0010 × 631 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.1237)
= $22.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3327 + 0.0010 × 631 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(2.8609)
= $17.48
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3327 + 0.0010 × 1,445 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.9745)
= $53.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3327 + 0.0010 × 1,445 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(3.7117)
= $40.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.45% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of August 15, 2025 was $77.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: August 15, 2025
a = 0.3740
b = 0.0022
s = 0.1079
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 121.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1079) – 1
= 53.94%
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3740 + 0.0022 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(3.7774)
= $43.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3740 + 0.0022 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(3.3460)
= $28.39
August 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3740 + 0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(4.5559)
= $95.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3740 + 0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1079)
= Exp(4.1245)
= $61.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 121.15% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of August 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.