Urban Outfitters Inc (URBN)
Urban Outfitters, Inc. is engaged in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.04% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $46.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.91% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of URBN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.9134
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.64%
May 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,024 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9134 + 0.0011 × 1,024 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.1248)
= $22.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,024 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9134 + 0.0011 × 1,024 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(2.8652)
= $17.55
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9134 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.9698)
= $52.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9134 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.7102)
= $40.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.04% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $46.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.3028
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0559
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.03%
May 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3028 + 0.0008 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.5590)
= $35.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3028 + 0.0008 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.3356)
= $28.10
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3028 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.9110)
= $49.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3028 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(3.6876)
= $39.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.91% per annum.
- URBN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.