Stock Price Trends

Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of branded apparel and other merchandise in the United States, strategically catering to value-conscious consumers. Headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey, the company operates a vast network of stores across the country, offering a wide range of products including clothing, footwear, and home goods at competitive prices. With a strong emphasis on providing exceptional value and a diverse selection, Burlington Stores aims to capitalize on the growing demand for off-price retail as consumers seek quality products at accessible prices. The company continues to expand its footprint and enhance its omnichannel capabilities, positioning itself as a notable player in the retail landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.95% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $273.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $52.00 (15.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.75% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BURL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2023
End date: February 7, 2025

a = 3.8021

b = 0.0012

s = 0.1186

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1186) – 1
= 60.68%

May 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8021 + 0.0012 × 918 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(5.1569)
= $173.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8021 + 0.0012 × 918 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(4.6826)
= $108.06

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8021 + 0.0012 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(5.9360)
= $378.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8021 + 0.0012 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(5.4618)
= $235.52

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.95% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $273.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $52.00 (15.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 30, 2024
End date: October 31, 2025

a = 5.4364

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0772

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.17%

May 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4364 + 0.0001 × 1,305 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.6877)
= $295.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y898)
= Exp(a + b × X898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4364 + 0.0001 × 1,305 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.3790)
= $216.81

October 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4364 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.7263)
= $306.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4364 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.4176)
= $225.33

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.75% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.