Stock Price Trends

Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a branded apparel retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.36% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $222.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $42.09 (15.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.74% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BURL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 19, 2023
End date: February 7, 2025

a = 3.5102

b = 0.0013

s = 0.1150

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.43%

May 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y770)
= Exp(a + b × X770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5102 + 0.0013 × 1,115 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.1445)
= $171.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y770)
= Exp(a + b × X770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5102 + 0.0013 × 1,115 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(4.6843)
= $108.24

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5102 + 0.0013 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.9379)
= $379.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5102 + 0.0013 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(5.4777)
= $239.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.36% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $222.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $42.09 (15.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 9.0493

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0432

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.88%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0493 + -0.0020 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.8063)
= $332.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0493 + -0.0020 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.6333)
= $279.59

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0493 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.4929)
= $242.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0493 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(5.3200)
= $204.37

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.74% per annum.
  • BURL price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.