Stock Price Trends

Ross Stores Inc (ROST)

Ross Stores, Inc., operating under the brand name Ross Dress for Less, is an American chain of discount department stores headquartered in Dublin, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.09% per annum.
  • ROST price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $139.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.17 (2.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.42% per annum.
  • ROST price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: February 5, 2025

a = 3.9760

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0842

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0842) – 1
= 40.06%

February 17, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9760 + 0.0006 × 659 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.5630)
= $95.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y456)
= Exp(a + b × X456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9760 + 0.0006 × 659 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.2261)
= $68.45

February 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9760 + 0.0006 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(5.2514)
= $190.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9760 + 0.0006 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.9146)
= $136.26

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.09% per annum.
  • ROST price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $139.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.17 (2.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 4.8905

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0531

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0531) – 1
= 23.67%

December 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8905 + 0.0000 × 1,321 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.0477)
= $155.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8905 + 0.0000 × 1,321 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.8353)
= $125.87

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8905 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(5.0671)
= $158.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8905 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0531)
= Exp(4.8547)
= $128.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.42% per annum.
  • ROST price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.