Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)
Peabody Energy Corporation is engaged in the coal mining business in the United States, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, China, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and internationally. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- BTU price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $22.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.76% per annum.
- BTU price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BTU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.1896
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1073
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1073) – 1
= 53.59%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1896 + 0.0000 × 1,018 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(3.3896)
= $29.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y703)
= Exp(a + b × X703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1896 + 0.0000 × 1,018 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(2.9605)
= $19.31
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1896 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(3.3781)
= $29.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1896 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(2.9490)
= $19.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.52% per annum.
- BTU price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $22.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 5.8029
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.44%
January 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8029 + -0.0015 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.3363)
= $28.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8029 + -0.0015 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.2190)
= $25.00
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8029 + -0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.1600)
= $23.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8029 + -0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.0427)
= $20.96
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.76% per annum.
- BTU price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.