Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE)
Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.22% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $17.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.87% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (7.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.4714
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0681
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0681) – 1
= 31.31%
June 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4714 + -0.0020 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(3.7036)
= $40.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4714 + -0.0020 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(3.4312)
= $30.91
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4714 + -0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(2.9124)
= $18.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4714 + -0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0681)
= Exp(2.6400)
= $14.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.22% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $17.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 9.5982
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0615
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.90%
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5982 + -0.0038 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.2657)
= $26.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5982 + -0.0038 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(3.0196)
= $20.48
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5982 + -0.0038 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.8116)
= $16.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5982 + -0.0038 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(2.5656)
= $13.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.87% per annum.
- GPRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.26 (7.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.