Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.07% per annum.
- CHTR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $367.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.42% per annum.
- CHTR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2020
End date: July 19, 2023
a = 7.3149
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1371
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1371) – 1
= 73.07%
November 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 695 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.9618)
= $1,055.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 695 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.4133)
= $609.90
July 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.0709)
= $433.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(5.5224)
= $250.23
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: December 4, 2023
a = 5.1111
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0815
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.55%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,379 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.9763)
= $393.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,379 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.6502)
= $284.35
December 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.2008)
= $493.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.8747)
= $355.94