Stock Price Trends

Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR)

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Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.07% per annum.
  • CHTR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $367.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.42% per annum.
  • CHTR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: November 4, 2020
End date: July 19, 2023

a = 7.3149

b = -0.0009

s = 0.1371

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1371) – 1
= 73.07%

November 4, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 695 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.9618)
= $1,055.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 695 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.4133)
= $609.90

July 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(6.0709)
= $433.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3149 + -0.0009 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(5.5224)
= $250.23

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: December 4, 2023

a = 5.1111

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0815

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.55%

September 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,379 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.9763)
= $393.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,379 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.6502)
= $284.35

December 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.2008)
= $493.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1111 + 0.0005 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(5.8747)
= $355.94