Comcast Corp (CMCSA)
Comcast Corporation is an American telecommunications conglomerate headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It is the second-largest broadcasting and cable television company in the world by revenue (behind AT&T), the largest pay-TV company, the largest cable TV company and largest home Internet service provider in the United States, and the nation's third-largest home telephone service provider. Comcast provides services to U.S. residential and commercial customers in 40 states and in the District of Columbia. As the parent company of the international media company NBCUniversal since 2011, Comcast is a producer of feature films and television programs intended for theatrical exhibition and over-the-air and cable television broadcast, respectively.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.69% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $38.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.64 (21.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.99% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMCSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: October 24, 2023
a = 2.2250
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0527
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.46%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2250 + 0.0010 × 1,215 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.5137)
= $33.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y840)
= Exp(a + b × X840 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2250 + 0.0010 × 1,215 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.3030)
= $27.19
October 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2250 + 0.0010 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.9267)
= $50.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2250 + 0.0010 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.7159)
= $41.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.69% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $38.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.64 (21.62%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.2419
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.81%
July 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2419 + -0.0003 × 1,550 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.8594)
= $47.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2419 + -0.0003 × 1,550 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.7300)
= $41.68
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2419 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.7804)
= $43.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2419 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(3.6510)
= $38.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.99% per annum.
- CMCSA price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.