Stock Price Trends

Chewy Inc (CHWY)

Chewy, Inc., is dedicated to the pure business of e-commerce in the United States. The company is headquartered in Dania Beach, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.25% per annum.
  • CHWY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $37.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (1.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.28% per annum.
  • CHWY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.07 (9.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHWY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 30, 2024
End date: March 6, 2025

a = -0.6232

b = 0.0024

s = 0.1037

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1037) – 1
= 51.41%

January 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6232 + 0.0024 × 1,371 + 2 × 0.1037)
= Exp(2.9385)
= $18.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y944)
= Exp(a + b × X944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6232 + 0.0024 × 1,371 – 2 × 0.1037)
= Exp(2.5237)
= $12.47

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6232 + 0.0024 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.1037)
= Exp(3.9196)
= $50.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6232 + 0.0024 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.1037)
= Exp(3.5048)
= $33.27

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 144.25% per annum.
  • CHWY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $37.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (1.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 3, 2025
End date: April 10, 2025

a = 6.9379

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0422

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.39%

January 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9379 + -0.0019 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(3.7485)
= $42.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9379 + -0.0019 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(3.5796)
= $35.86

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9379 + -0.0019 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(3.5628)
= $35.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9379 + -0.0019 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(3.3939)
= $29.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 50.28% per annum.
  • CHWY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.07 (9.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.