Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an American retail chain of stores that offers products for home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.10% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $59.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.44 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.12% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2025
End date: September 8, 2025
a = 0.8043
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.63%
April 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8043 + 0.0018 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.9235)
= $50.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8043 + 0.0018 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(3.8046)
= $44.91
September 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8043 + 0.0018 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.1890)
= $65.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8043 + 0.0018 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.0701)
= $58.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.10% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $59.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.44 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 25, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 8.3101
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.54%
August 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3101 + -0.0023 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.1514)
= $63.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3101 + -0.0023 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.1070)
= $60.76
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3101 + -0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.0980)
= $60.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3101 + -0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.0536)
= $57.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.12% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.