Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an American retail chain of stores that offers products for home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.63% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $55.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.44 (6.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 228.00% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 22, 2025
End date: January 20, 2026
a = 5.8010
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.04%
July 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8010 + -0.0010 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.1618)
= $64.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8010 + -0.0010 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.0571)
= $57.81
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8010 + -0.0010 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.9723)
= $53.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8010 + -0.0010 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.8676)
= $47.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.63% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $55.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.44 (6.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 29, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = -1.9065
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0203
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 228.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0203) – 1
= 8.46%
December 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9065 + 0.0033 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(3.9399)
= $51.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9065 + 0.0033 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(3.8587)
= $47.40
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9065 + 0.0033 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(4.0375)
= $56.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9065 + 0.0033 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0203)
= Exp(3.9563)
= $52.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 228.00% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.