Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an American retail chain of stores that offers products for home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.02% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of November 24, 2025 was $53.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.26% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of November 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2025
End date: November 7, 2025
a = 7.4039
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.04%
August 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4039 + -0.0019 × 1,724 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.1667)
= $64.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4039 + -0.0019 × 1,724 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.0894)
= $59.70
November 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4039 + -0.0019 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.0070)
= $54.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4039 + -0.0019 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(3.9298)
= $50.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.02% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of November 24, 2025 was $53.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2025
End date: November 18, 2025
a = 4.9337
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0194
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0194) – 1
= 8.05%
September 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9337 + -0.0005 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.0563)
= $57.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9337 + -0.0005 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.9789)
= $53.46
November 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9337 + -0.0005 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(4.0283)
= $56.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9337 + -0.0005 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.9509)
= $51.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.26% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of November 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.