Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an American retail chain of stores that offers products for home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.77% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $49.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.73% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.10 (2.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: February 22, 2024
a = 3.5358
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.97%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5358 + 0.0002 × 331 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.7414)
= $42.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5358 + 0.0002 × 331 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.4489)
= $31.47
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5358 + 0.0002 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.9321)
= $51.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5358 + 0.0002 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.6396)
= $38.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.77% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $49.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 3.2812
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0703
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.46%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y509)
= Exp(a + b × X509 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2812 + 0.0004 × 736 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.7336)
= $41.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y509)
= Exp(a + b × X509 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2812 + 0.0004 × 736 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.4525)
= $31.58
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2812 + 0.0004 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(4.1845)
= $65.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2812 + 0.0004 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(3.9034)
= $49.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.73% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.10 (2.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.