Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is an American retail chain of stores that offers products for home improvement, agriculture, lawn and garden maintenance, livestock, equine and pet care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.99% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $257.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.13% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $24.79 (8.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2021
End date: February 26, 2024
a = 5.1002
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0736
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0736) – 1
= 34.21%
March 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1002 + 0.0002 × 602 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.3588)
= $212.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y415)
= Exp(a + b × X415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1002 + 0.0002 × 602 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.0646)
= $158.31
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1002 + 0.0002 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.5577)
= $259.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1002 + 0.0002 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(5.2635)
= $193.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.99% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $257.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: June 24, 2024
a = 2.9048
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0328
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0328) – 1
= 14.00%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9048 + 0.0015 × 1,518 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.3009)
= $200.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9048 + 0.0015 × 1,518 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.1698)
= $175.89
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9048 + 0.0015 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.7262)
= $306.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9048 + 0.0015 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0328)
= Exp(5.5951)
= $269.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.13% per annum.
- TSCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $24.79 (8.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.