Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc., formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc., is an American chain of beauty stores headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois. Ulta Beauty carries cosmetics and skincare brands, men's and women's fragrances, nail products, bath and body products, beauty tools and haircare products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 88.23% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $397.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.76% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ULTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 16.6741
b = -0.0059
s = 0.0372
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0059) – 1
= -88.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0372) – 1
= 16.03%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6741 + -0.0059 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.4485)
= $631.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6741 + -0.0059 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.2998)
= $544.47
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6741 + -0.0059 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(6.0557)
= $426.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.6741 + -0.0059 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(5.9070)
= $367.61
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 88.23% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $397.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 12.8670
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0087
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0087) – 1
= 3.52%
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8670 + -0.0038 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(6.0695)
= $432.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8670 + -0.0038 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(6.0349)
= $417.75
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8670 + -0.0038 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(6.0054)
= $405.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8670 + -0.0038 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(5.9708)
= $391.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.76% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.