Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)
Ulta Beauty, Inc., formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc., is an American chain of beauty stores headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois. Ulta Beauty carries cosmetics and skincare brands, men's and women's fragrances, nail products, bath and body products, beauty tools and haircare products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.85% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $369.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.58% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ULTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 7.1773
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.70%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1773 + -0.0007 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.4252)
= $617.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1773 + -0.0007 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.1199)
= $454.84
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1773 + -0.0007 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(6.1468)
= $467.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1773 + -0.0007 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(5.8415)
= $344.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.85% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $369.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: April 18, 2024
a = 6.3007
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1070
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1070) – 1
= 53.42%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3007 + -0.0001 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(6.3937)
= $598.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3007 + -0.0001 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(5.9657)
= $389.82
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3007 + -0.0001 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(6.3425)
= $568.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3007 + -0.0001 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(5.9145)
= $370.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.58% per annum.
- ULTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.