Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.97% per annum.
- BBWI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- BBWI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BBWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 4.4605
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1757
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1757) – 1
= 101.96%
February 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4605 + -0.0006 × 578 + 2 × 0.1757)
= Exp(4.4393)
= $84.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 578 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4605 + -0.0006 × 578 – 2 × 0.1757)
= Exp(3.7364)
= $41.95
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4605 + -0.0006 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.1757)
= Exp(3.7822)
= $43.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4605 + -0.0006 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.1757)
= Exp(3.0793)
= $21.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.97% per annum.
- BBWI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $34.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 19, 2022
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 3.1719
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1308) – 1
= 68.72%
May 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1719 + 0.0003 × 1,025 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(3.7596)
= $42.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1719 + 0.0003 × 1,025 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(3.2366)
= $25.45
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1719 + 0.0003 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(4.0129)
= $55.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1719 + 0.0003 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(3.4898)
= $32.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- BBWI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.