Stock Price Trends

Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.54% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $31.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $440.61 (93.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.90% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BBWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: December 15, 2021

a = 3.3094

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.10%

March 12, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3094 + 0.0016 × 317 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(3.8966)
= $49.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3094 + 0.0016 × 317 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(3.7387)
= $42.04

December 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y412)
= Exp(a + b × X412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3094 + 0.0016 × 595 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.3423)
= $76.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y412)
= Exp(a + b × X412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3094 + 0.0016 × 595 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.1845)
= $65.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.54% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $31.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $440.61 (93.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 4.0699

b = -0.0003

s = 0.1905

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1905) – 1
= 114.26%

March 12, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0699 + -0.0003 × 317 + 2 × 0.1905)
= Exp(4.3409)
= $76.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0699 + -0.0003 × 317 – 2 × 0.1905)
= Exp(3.5788)
= $35.83

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0699 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1905)
= Exp(3.8175)
= $45.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0699 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1905)
= Exp(3.0555)
= $21.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.90% per annum.
  • BBWI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.