Cigna Corp (CI)
Cigna is an American multinational managed healthcare and insurance company based in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Its insurance subsidiaries are major providers of medical, dental, disability, life and accident insurance and related products and services, the majority of which are offered through employers and other groups (e.g. governmental and non-governmental organizations, unions and associations).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 114.81% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $354.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.30 (0.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.48% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 2.1184
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.53%
November 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1184 + 0.0021 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(5.6657)
= $288.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1184 + 0.0021 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(5.5300)
= $252.15
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1184 + 0.0021 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(5.9757)
= $393.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1184 + 0.0021 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(5.8400)
= $343.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 114.81% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $354.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.30 (0.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2024
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 8.5283
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.22%
March 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5283 + -0.0015 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.9168)
= $371.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5283 + -0.0015 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.8755)
= $356.21
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5283 + -0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.8742)
= $355.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5283 + -0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.8329)
= $341.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.48% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.