DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA)
DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services through a network of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 231.52% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $137.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.91 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.44% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.30 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: April 9, 2024
a = -0.9124
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 231.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.66%
October 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9124 + 0.0033 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.4884)
= $88.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9124 + 0.0033 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.2600)
= $70.81
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9124 + 0.0033 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.0827)
= $161.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9124 + 0.0033 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(4.8543)
= $128.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 231.52% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $137.01 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.91 (4.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 6.5318
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.84%
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5318 + -0.0009 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9598)
= $142.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5318 + -0.0009 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.8844)
= $132.21
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5318 + -0.0009 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.9122)
= $135.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5318 + -0.0009 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(4.8367)
= $126.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.44% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.30 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.