Stock Price Trends

DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA)

DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services through a network of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.18% per annum.
  • DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $142.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.77 (16.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
  • DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: February 14, 2025

a = 3.3514

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0854

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0854) – 1
= 40.70%

October 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 844 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.4314)
= $84.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 844 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.0900)
= $59.74

February 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(5.3364)
= $207.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.9949)
= $147.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.18% per annum.
  • DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $142.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.77 (16.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: July 2, 2025

a = 5.8011

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0558

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 25.02%

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,508 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.2094)
= $182.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,508 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.9861)
= $146.37

July 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.0630)
= $158.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8397)
= $126.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
  • DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.