DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA)
DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services through a network of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.18% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $142.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.77 (16.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 3.3514
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0854
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0854) – 1
= 40.70%
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 844 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.4314)
= $84.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y585)
= Exp(a + b × X585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 844 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.0900)
= $59.74
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(5.3364)
= $207.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3514 + 0.0011 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0854)
= Exp(4.9949)
= $147.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.18% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $142.56 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.77 (16.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2024
End date: July 2, 2025
a = 5.8011
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 25.02%
August 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,508 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.2094)
= $182.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,508 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.9861)
= $146.37
July 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(5.0630)
= $158.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8011 + -0.0005 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.8397)
= $126.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.65% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.