DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc (DVA)
DaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services through a network of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.05% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $142.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.47% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.9546
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0927
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0927) – 1
= 44.92%
October 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9546 + 0.0011 × 1,190 + 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(4.4412)
= $84.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9546 + 0.0011 × 1,190 – 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(4.0703)
= $58.57
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9546 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(5.1366)
= $170.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9546 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(4.7657)
= $117.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.05% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $142.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.2514
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0775
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 114.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0775) – 1
= 36.36%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2514 + 0.0021 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.6090)
= $100.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2514 + 0.0021 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.2989)
= $73.62
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2514 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(5.2236)
= $185.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2514 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.9135)
= $136.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 114.47% per annum.
- DVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.