Chemed Corp (CHE)
Chemed Corporation provides hospice and hospice services to patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy, and volunteers across the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.29% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $569.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.46% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 5.6252
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.38%
July 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6252 + 0.0004 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.2291)
= $507.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6252 + 0.0004 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.0436)
= $421.41
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6252 + 0.0004 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.5070)
= $669.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6252 + 0.0004 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.3215)
= $556.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.29% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $569.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 10.9753
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.13%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9753 + -0.0025 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(6.5350)
= $688.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9753 + -0.0025 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(6.4568)
= $637.04
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9753 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(6.3723)
= $585.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9753 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(6.2941)
= $541.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.46% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.