Stock Price Trends

Chemed Corporation (CHE)

chemed is a holding company. our wholly owned subsidiaries are vitas and roto-rooter services company. vitas is a healthcare company that specializes in hospice or end of life care for the terminally ill. roto-rooter is the nation's largest provider of plumbing and drain care services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.02% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $613.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.71% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 4.5990

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0309

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1
= 13.16%

August 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,613 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(6.2728)
= $529.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,613 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(6.1492)
= $468.34

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(6.4837)
= $654.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(6.3601)
= $578.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.02% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $613.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 5.7510

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0157

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0157) – 1
= 6.48%

October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.3802)
= $590.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.3173)
= $554.10

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.4245)
= $616.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.3617)
= $579.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.71% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.