Stock Price Trends

Chemed Corp (CHE)

Chemed Corporation provides hospice and hospice services to patients through a network of physicians, registered nurses, home health aides, social workers, clergy, and volunteers across the United States. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.48% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $541.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.24 (2.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.02% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 9.5446

b = -0.0018

s = 0.0215

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.97%

March 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5446 + -0.0018 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(6.5255)
= $682.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5446 + -0.0018 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(6.4396)
= $626.15

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5446 + -0.0018 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(6.2928)
= $540.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5446 + -0.0018 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(6.2070)
= $496.20

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.48% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $541.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.24 (2.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 6.7054

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0099

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0099) – 1
= 4.05%

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7054 + -0.0002 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(6.3198)
= $555.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7054 + -0.0002 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(6.2800)
= $533.80

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7054 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(6.3069)
= $548.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7054 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(6.2672)
= $526.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.02% per annum.
  • CHE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.