# Chemed Corporation (CHE)

chemed is a holding company. our wholly owned subsidiaries are vitas and roto-rooter services company. vitas is a healthcare company that specializes in hospice or end of life care for the terminally ill. roto-rooter is the nation's largest provider of plumbing and drain care services.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.02% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $613.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of CHE price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: August 3, 2023

End date: March 1, 2024

a = 4.5990

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0309

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1

= 44.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1

= 13.16%

#### August 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,113})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,113} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,613 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,613 + 2 × 0.0309)

= Exp(6.2728)

= $529.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,113})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,113} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,613 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,613 – 2 × 0.0309)

= Exp(6.1492)

= $468.34

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0309)

= Exp(6.4837)

= $654.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5990 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0309)

= Exp(6.3601)

= $578.29

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.02% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $613.81 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023

End date: March 1, 2024

a = 5.7510

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0157

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1

= 13.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0157) – 1

= 6.48%

#### October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,173})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,173} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,698 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,698 + 2 × 0.0157)

= Exp(6.3802)

= $590.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,173})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,173} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,698 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,698 – 2 × 0.0157)

= Exp(6.3173)

= $554.10

#### March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0157)

= Exp(6.4245)

= $616.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.7510 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0157)

= Exp(6.3617)

= $579.23

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.71% per annum.
- CHE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.