Privia Health Group Inc (PRVA)
Privia Health Group, Inc. is a population health technology and medical practice management company in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.49% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $18.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.94% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 3.9677
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.42%
February 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9677 + -0.0009 × 656 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.4743)
= $32.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9677 + -0.0009 × 656 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.2558)
= $25.94
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9677 + -0.0009 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.0554)
= $21.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9677 + -0.0009 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(2.8369)
= $17.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.49% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $18.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 4.8190
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.73%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8190 + -0.0017 × 959 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(3.2438)
= $25.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8190 + -0.0017 × 959 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(3.0637)
= $21.41
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8190 + -0.0017 × 1,112 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(2.9782)
= $19.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8190 + -0.0017 × 1,112 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(2.7981)
= $16.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.94% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.