Privia Health Group Inc (PRVA)
Privia Health Group, Inc. is a leading population health technology and medical practice management company based in the United States, focused on transforming the way healthcare is delivered. By leveraging advanced technology and data-driven solutions, Privia empowers physician practices to enhance patient care while improving operational efficiency. The company's innovative platform integrates a range of services, including care coordination, analytics, and revenue cycle management, positioning Privia as a key player in the evolving healthcare landscape aimed at achieving better health outcomes and cost savings for both providers and patients.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.74% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $21.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.94% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of February 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (1.07%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: February 2, 2026
a = 2.3618
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0770
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0770) – 1
= 36.09%
March 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3618 + 0.0005 × 1,059 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(3.0384)
= $20.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y730)
= Exp(a + b × X730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3618 + 0.0005 × 1,059 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(2.7303)
= $15.34
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3618 + 0.0005 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(3.3750)
= $29.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3618 + 0.0005 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(3.0669)
= $21.47
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.74% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $21.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2025
End date: February 5, 2026
a = 4.2606
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.41%
September 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2606 + -0.0006 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.2793)
= $26.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2606 + -0.0006 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.1623)
= $23.63
February 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2606 + -0.0006 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.1963)
= $24.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2606 + -0.0006 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.0793)
= $21.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.94% per annum.
- PRVA price at the close of February 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (1.07%).