Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS)
Addus HomeCare Corporation, provides personal care services to the elderly, the chronically ill, the disabled, and people who are at risk of hospitalization or institutionalization in the United States. The company is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.15% per annum.
- ADUS price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $109.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,984.41% per annum.
- ADUS price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 3.0064
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.43%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0064 + 0.0009 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.4804)
= $88.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0064 + 0.0009 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.3197)
= $75.17
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0064 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.7035)
= $110.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0064 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(4.5429)
= $93.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.15% per annum.
- ADUS price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $109.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: May 14, 2024
a = -13.8471
b = 0.0102
s = 0.0191
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0102) – 1
= 3,984.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0191) – 1
= 7.92%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.8471 + 0.0102 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.5569)
= $95.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.8471 + 0.0102 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.4806)
= $88.29
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.8471 + 0.0102 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.7500)
= $115.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.8471 + 0.0102 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.6737)
= $107.10
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,984.41% per annum.
- ADUS price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.