Stock Price Trends

Premier Inc (PINC)

Premier, Inc., is a health improvement company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $19.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.38% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PINC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2021
End date: May 14, 2024

a = 4.3539

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0819

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0819) – 1
= 38.78%

October 11, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3539 + -0.0007 × 880 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.8667)
= $47.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y607)
= Exp(a + b × X607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3539 + -0.0007 × 880 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.5390)
= $34.43

May 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3539 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.1668)
= $23.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3539 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(2.8391)
= $17.10

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $19.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2023
End date: May 14, 2024

a = 2.7508

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0438

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.15%

September 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0002 × 1,582 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.1064)
= $22.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,582 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0002 × 1,582 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(2.9312)
= $18.75

May 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(3.1477)
= $23.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7508 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(2.9725)
= $19.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.38% per annum.
  • PINC price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.