Progyny Inc (PGNY)
Progyny, Inc., a benefits management company, specializes in fertility benefits and family development solutions for employers in the United States. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.42% per annum.
- PGNY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.91% per annum.
- PGNY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PGNY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.1823
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1522) – 1
= 83.81%
January 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1823 + -0.0005 × 448 + 2 × 0.1522)
= Exp(4.2811)
= $72.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1823 + -0.0005 × 448 – 2 × 0.1522)
= Exp(3.6724)
= $39.35
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1823 + -0.0005 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.1522)
= Exp(3.6908)
= $40.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1823 + -0.0005 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.1522)
= Exp(3.0821)
= $21.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.42% per annum.
- PGNY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $28.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.3681
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.62%
January 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3681 + -0.0024 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.8431)
= $46.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3681 + -0.0024 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.5914)
= $36.28
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3681 + -0.0024 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.3808)
= $29.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3681 + -0.0024 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.1291)
= $22.85
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.91% per annum.
- PGNY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.