CVS Health Corp (CVS)
CVS Health (previously CVS Corporation and CVS Caremark Corporation) is an American healthcare company that owns CVS Pharmacy, a retail pharmacy chain; CVS Caremark, a pharmacy benefits manager; Aetna, a health insurance provider, among many other brands. The company's headquarters is in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.16% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $75.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.77 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.97% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of September 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2021
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 4.7721
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.39%
November 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7721 + -0.0005 × 399 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.7394)
= $114.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7721 + -0.0005 × 399 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.3931)
= $80.89
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7721 + -0.0005 × 1,595 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.1224)
= $61.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7721 + -0.0005 × 1,595 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.7760)
= $43.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.16% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $75.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.77 (37.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2024
End date: September 29, 2025
a = 3.2279
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0917
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0917) – 1
= 44.30%
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2279 + 0.0005 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(4.1236)
= $61.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y901)
= Exp(a + b × X901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2279 + 0.0005 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(3.7569)
= $42.82
September 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2279 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(4.4044)
= $81.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2279 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0917)
= Exp(4.0377)
= $56.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.97% per annum.
- CVS price at the close of September 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.