CorVel Corp (CRVL)
CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation, auto, liability and health solutions for employers, outside administrators, insurance companies, and government agencies to help them manage medical costs and monitor the quality of care associated with health care claims. The company is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- CRVL price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $262.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $99.33 (60.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.51% per annum.
- CRVL price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRVL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 30, 2021
End date: January 26, 2023
a = 5.3398
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0993
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0993) – 1
= 48.78%
June 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3398 + -0.0002 × 777 + 2 × 0.0993)
= Exp(5.3504)
= $210.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y536)
= Exp(a + b × X536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3398 + -0.0002 × 777 – 2 × 0.0993)
= Exp(4.9531)
= $141.61
January 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3398 + -0.0002 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0993)
= Exp(5.2112)
= $183.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y932)
= Exp(a + b × X932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3398 + -0.0002 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0993)
= Exp(4.8139)
= $123.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- CRVL price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $262.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $99.33 (60.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 4.0533
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0682
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0682) – 1
= 31.36%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0533 + 0.0008 × 1,086 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.0717)
= $159.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0533 + 0.0008 × 1,086 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(4.7990)
= $121.38
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0533 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.6727)
= $290.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0533 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0682)
= Exp(5.4000)
= $221.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.51% per annum.
- CRVL price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.