Stock Price Trends

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 405.91% per annum.
  • CON price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $22.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.21 (5.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.71% per annum.
  • CON price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2025
End date: September 4, 2025

a = 1.3800

b = 0.0044

s = 0.0339

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 405.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.52%

July 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3800 + 0.0044 × 351 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.0068)
= $20.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3800 + 0.0044 × 351 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(2.8713)
= $17.66

September 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3800 + 0.0044 × 406 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.2511)
= $25.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3800 + 0.0044 × 406 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.1155)
= $22.55

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 405.91% per annum.
  • CON price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $22.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.21 (5.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 28, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025

a = 5.6708

b = -0.0062

s = 0.0159

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0062) – 1
= -89.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0159) – 1
= 6.58%

August 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6708 + -0.0062 × 399 + 2 × 0.0159)
= Exp(3.2168)
= $24.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6708 + -0.0062 × 399 – 2 × 0.0159)
= Exp(3.1531)
= $23.41

September 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6708 + -0.0062 × 414 + 2 × 0.0159)
= Exp(3.1233)
= $22.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6708 + -0.0062 × 414 – 2 × 0.0159)
= Exp(3.0596)
= $21.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.71% per annum.
  • CON price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.