Fulgent Genetics Inc (FLGT)
Fulgent Genetics, Inc., provides COVID-19 testing and genetic testing services to physicians with clinically actionable diagnostic information. The company is headquartered in Temple City, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.88% per annum.
- FLGT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $22.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.90% per annum.
- FLGT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FLGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2021
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 5.5633
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1518
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1518) – 1
= 83.50%
January 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5633 + -0.0014 × 623 + 2 × 0.1518)
= Exp(4.9984)
= $148.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5633 + -0.0014 × 623 – 2 × 0.1518)
= Exp(4.3914)
= $80.75
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5633 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1518)
= Exp(3.3217)
= $27.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5633 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1518)
= Exp(2.7146)
= $15.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.88% per annum.
- FLGT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was $22.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: May 14, 2024
a = 4.7782
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1144) – 1
= 58.02%
August 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7782 + -0.0009 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.1144)
= Exp(3.9289)
= $50.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7782 + -0.0009 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.1144)
= Exp(3.4714)
= $32.18
May 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7782 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1144)
= Exp(3.3706)
= $29.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7782 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1144)
= Exp(2.9130)
= $18.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.90% per annum.
- FLGT price at the close of May 14, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.