Stock Price Trends

Designer Brands Inc (DBI)

Designer Brands Inc. designs, manufactures and retails women's, men's and children's footwear and accessories primarily in North America. The company is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.39% per annum.
  • DBI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $7.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.23% per annum.
  • DBI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DBI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 3.1185

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1572

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1572) – 1
= 87.55%

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1185 + -0.0006 × 588 + 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(3.1056)
= $22.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 588 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1185 + -0.0006 × 588 – 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(2.4767)
= $11.90

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1185 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(2.4176)
= $11.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1185 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1572)
= Exp(1.7887)
= $5.98

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.39% per annum.
  • DBI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $7.84 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 7.6663

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0831

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -68.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1
= 39.42%

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6663 + -0.0031 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.5676)
= $13.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6663 + -0.0031 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.2353)
= $9.35

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6663 + -0.0031 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(2.1027)
= $8.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6663 + -0.0031 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(1.7704)
= $5.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.23% per annum.
  • DBI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.