Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) is a publicly traded investment firm that specializes in acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets. Headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, the company leverages its deep industry expertise and research capabilities to capitalize on market opportunities while managing risk effectively. With a focus on generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors, Ellington Financial employs a range of strategies across various asset classes, positioning itself as a key player in the financial sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of March 6, 2026 was $12.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (7.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.21% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of March 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: January 29, 2026
a = 1.6246
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.57%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6246 + 0.0006 × 1,058 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.2762)
= $9.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6246 + 0.0006 × 1,058 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.1402)
= $8.50
January 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6246 + 0.0006 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.6783)
= $14.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6246 + 0.0006 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.5423)
= $12.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of March 6, 2026 was $12.03 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.93 (7.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2026
End date: March 6, 2026
a = 6.5051
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 7.00%
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5051 + -0.0022 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(2.6511)
= $14.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5051 + -0.0022 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(2.5834)
= $13.24
March 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5051 + -0.0022 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(2.5279)
= $12.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5051 + -0.0022 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(2.4602)
= $11.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.21% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of March 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.