Ellington Financial LLC (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, business-related and other financial assets in the United States. The company is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.54 (24.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.23% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023
a = 2.7815
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 27.97%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7815 + -0.0003 × 619 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.7063)
= $14.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7815 + -0.0003 × 619 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.4597)
= $11.70
June 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7815 + -0.0003 × 1,410 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.4527)
= $11.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7815 + -0.0003 × 1,410 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.2061)
= $9.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.54 (24.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.0515
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0555
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0555) – 1
= 24.87%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0515 + 0.0002 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.4413)
= $11.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0515 + 0.0002 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.2192)
= $9.20
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0515 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.6044)
= $13.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0515 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.3823)
= $10.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.23% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.