Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) is a publicly traded investment firm that specializes in acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets. Headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, the company leverages its deep industry expertise and research capabilities to capitalize on market opportunities while managing risk effectively. With a focus on generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors, Ellington Financial employs a range of strategies across various asset classes, positioning itself as a key player in the financial sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $12.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.83% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of February 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: January 29, 2026
a = 1.6191
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.55%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6191 + 0.0006 × 1,087 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.2865)
= $9.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y749)
= Exp(a + b × X749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6191 + 0.0006 × 1,087 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.1507)
= $8.59
January 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6191 + 0.0006 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.6886)
= $14.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6191 + 0.0006 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.5527)
= $12.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of February 5, 2026 was $12.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 20, 2026
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 15.6833
b = -0.0072
s = 0.0126
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0072) – 1
= -92.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0126) – 1
= 5.18%
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6833 + -0.0072 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(2.6644)
= $14.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6833 + -0.0072 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(2.6139)
= $13.65
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6833 + -0.0072 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(2.5634)
= $12.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6833 + -0.0072 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0126)
= Exp(2.5128)
= $12.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 92.83% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of February 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.