Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)
Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) is a publicly traded investment firm that specializes in acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets. Headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, the company leverages its deep industry expertise and research capabilities to capitalize on market opportunities while managing risk effectively. With a focus on generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for its investors, Ellington Financial employs a range of strategies across various asset classes, positioning itself as a key player in the financial sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.38% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $13.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.05% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 1.5972
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0360
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0360) – 1
= 15.50%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5972 + 0.0006 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(2.3297)
= $10.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5972 + 0.0006 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(2.1856)
= $8.90
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5972 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(2.6783)
= $14.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5972 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(2.5342)
= $12.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.38% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $13.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 9, 2024
End date: October 24, 2025
a = 1.7596
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0340
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0340) – 1
= 14.59%
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7596 + 0.0005 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.4422)
= $11.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7596 + 0.0005 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.3061)
= $10.03
October 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7596 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.6568)
= $14.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7596 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0340)
= Exp(2.5206)
= $12.44
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.05% per annum.
- EFC price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.