Stock Price Trends

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI)

hannon armstrong provides debt and equity financing to the energy efficiency and renewable energy markets. we focus on providing preferred or senior level capital to established sponsors and high credit quality obligors, such as u.s. federal, state and local governments, global 1000 corporations and private developers, for assets that generate long-term, recurring and predictable cash flows. our management team has extensive industry knowledge and experience, having completed its first renewable energy financing more than 25 years ago and its first energy efficiency financing over 15 years ago. the company is based in annapolis, maryland and elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (reit) for federal income-tax purposes, beginning with its taxable year ended december 31, 2013. nyse: hasi securities are offered by hannon armstrong securities, llc, a registered broker dealer, member of finra and sipc and subsidiary of hannon armstrong sustainable infrastr

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.12% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $26.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (4.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,494.86% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $12.10 (31.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HASI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

December 11, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.12% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $26.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.16 (4.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

October 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

December 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,494.86% per annum.
  • HASI price at the close of February 16, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $12.10 (31.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

EFC
Ellington Financial Inc.